NFL Week 9 Picks – Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

November 8, 2009   ·   theboss   ·   Jump to comments

Arizona (+3) vs. Chicago (-3)
O/U (44½)
Sunday, November 8 1:00 PM ET

The Arizona Cardinals (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U) had their three-game winning streak snapped in Week 9, getting upset by the mediocre Carolina Panthers 34-21 while failing to cover the NFL point spread as a 10-point home favorite while the game’s 55 combined points played Over the 44-point O/U total.

Kurt Warner threw a whopping five interceptions for Arizona in the surprising loss.

The Chicago Bears (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U) had an easy time with the regressing Cleveland Browns as I predicted for avid NFL gamblers last week, spanking the lowly Browns 30-6 to cover the NFL point spread as an 11.5-point home favorite with room to spare.

While quarterback Jay Cutler failed to throw a TD pass in the game, running back Matt Forte rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries while the game’s final score played Under the 40-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

• Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
• Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
• Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
• Bears are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

NFL Odds

Arizona Cardinals +3 -115
Over/Under 44½ -110

Analysis: While I was surprised by Arizona’s Week 8 loss – and ticked off that it gave me one of my three losses in a fantastic wagering week – the key trends for this contest clearly point to a Cardinals cover, most likely with the straight up win.

While Chicago Bears have gone a very solid 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games and equally impressive 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, Chicago backers had better be worried about the fact that the Bears have also struggled against winning teams, going 1-5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record, while seemingly having a letdown following a big win as they’ve gone a poor, 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following an SU win of more than 14 points.

The Cardinals have gone a spotless 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog and an even more remarkable 6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

Arizona has also gone 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, telling me they play better against better teams, while showing a nice ability to bounce back from a resounding loss, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home.

If you need more proof that the Cardinals are the right pick in this contest, just look at the fact that the offensive-minded Cards have gone a stellar 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against their NFC conference rivals.