NFL Betting Preview – Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams

December 20, 2009   ·   theboss   ·   Jump to comments

Nobody’s touching this line right now because they have no idea what the St. Louis Rams are doing at quarterback. Kind of ironic that a one-win team is being led by a rookie with the last name “Null” but no matter who the Rams hand the reigns to is inconsequential. The Texans are a proven commodity on the road.

Houston has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 roadies, and while they’re just 6-15 SU in their last 21 games away from home, they’re a solid bet to beat the Rams by at least two scores. St. Louis’s defensive secondary is absolutely porous, and Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are simply going to be too much for the Rams.

Matt Schaub and the Texans are the top ranked offensive road team in terms of passing with 317.3 passing yards per game. Rams give up an average of 224.3 yards through the air and the way Houston’s designed pretty much gives them a +2.1 point differential against opposing defensive averages. To keep it simple, the Rams give up 27.8 points per game, and under my system the Texans should score 29.9 points.

Houston Texans (6-7) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-12) >> Join Now to Bet!
Sunday, December 20th — Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis — 1:00pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Houston -10.5

St. Louis is just 5-11 ATS when playing at home, and there is a high chance that Steven Jackson might not see the field. It’s not due to injury or anything, it’s more so that the Rams need to see if Null is the answer at quarterback (hint: he’s not) so they can figure out what they’re going to do with a number one or number two pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Risking Jackson to injury should not be in St. Louis’s plans right now.

The Rams are an underperforming mess right now, and the scramble to find their biggest draft needs has left the oddsmakers guessing. I’d say that the line stays around what Vegas opened it with at -10.5. If this game goes above the 13.5-point mark it becomes an official stay away (I just hate games with rookie quarterbacks trying to prove themselves, that’s all).

If you can grab it anywhere below 12.5 in favor of Houston, I’d say it’s a lock. The Rams just can’t stop big passing plays and Houston’s rushing defense has found its footing in recent weeks. Even if Jackson plays, he won’t be effective.

The Houston Texans are in a log jam race for the wild card right now, and they’re quite frankly not a playoff team. They get a gimme against St. Louis this weekend, but then they close the season against Miami Dolphins and then New England Patriots. If they’re made of sterner stuff, we’ll find out in the final two weeks of the season. For now, however, they’re a big spread pick above the Rams. Don’t even hesitate.

Furious Free Pick: Houston -10.5