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NFL Game Of The Week – Denver Broncos Attempt To Derail Colts

December 12, 2009 · theboss · Jump to comments

If there’s one team that has responded to people doubting them, it’s the Denver Broncos. After a four-game losing skid, the Broncos have throttled the Giants and Chiefs by a combined score of 70-19. They’re next hurdle to clear is trying to sneak out a win against the heavily favored Colts in a game that has football betting nut jobs clamoring to take the right side of the line. The x-factor for the Broncos in this game will be their own head coach, Josh McDaniels, who is all too familiar with what Peyton Manning is capable after serving for the Patriots for so long.

Denver erased the memory of an 0-4 ATS record by clearing the spread twice and are now 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games. That puts them at a near-even keel with the Colts who are a sturdy 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Home field has not been a serious advantage for the Colts, who are just 5-11 ATS when playing at home. They’re 4-1 SU/ATS when hosting the Broncos in the past five games, but they are honestly not used to playing a team like Denver.

The Broncos ranks third in overall defense with just 16.8 points allowed and possess a passing defense at home that allows just 168.3 yards per game. Their rushing defense, which can stymie any ground game, ranks 11th at home with just 107.8 yards allowed.

Peyton Manning and the Colts’ defense have been shutting down teams and killing the spread in the past three games after getting scares from New England and Houston. In their last five games, they’ve played teams that have a current defensive ranking of 15.25, although Tennessee’s defense still ranks in the bottom five of the league.

This will be the toughest defense that the Colts have played all season, and the Broncos have victories over the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots which all rank in the top-10 for defense.

Sign up HERE to start betting on Indianapolis -7 vs Denver!

Denver Broncos Broncos (8-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

Sunday, December 13th
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis — 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis -7 (44.5)

The Colts are getting a favorable line in this game, and I can’t really understand why. The oddsmakers are definitely scared of the Broncos reverting back to the team that quickly went 0-4 SU midway through the season, but an in-house brawl between Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno somehow unified this team and has put them in a position to keep pace with San Diego for the AFC West and a probable wildcard shot if they fall short within their own division.

What you have to love about this game for Denver is that Indianapolis’s defense allows a scary amount of points against teams that have a top-10 receiver. Against Arizona, they managed to hold the Cardinals to just 10 points, but on average they’ve allowed 22.0 points when facing Fitzgerald, Moss and Andre Johnson. Count Denver’s Brandon Marshall as one of the top-5 receivers in the league, and with so many injuries to the secondary in Indianapolis, I find it hard to imagine that they’ll have an answer for B-Marsh.

Moreno and Addai virtually cancel each other out because both have so many flaws in their game. So what this comes down to is Peyton victimizing a strong secondary from Denver, and Kyle Orton not screwing this up. As much as you may hate Kyle Orton from a betting standpoint, you can not negate the fact he’s enjoyed a thorough amount of success this season.

The Colts have been playing on fumes for the past few weeks, and it’s easy to think that a bounce-back effort against both Tennessee and Houston has fueled their perfect season. But I’m telling you right now that this Denver team is not to be taken lightly. They’ve overcome the hardships of a four-game losing streak and look as good now as they have all season. Stopping pass-heavy offenses has been a strong suit of Denver. They’ve held Dallas, New England, San Diego (x2), Pittsburgh and the New York Giants to an average of just 14.5 points per game.

The secondary for Denver is also tough as nails, and the Titans offered a blueprint for slowing down Indy’s passing attack by delivering hard hits and deflating tackles. Pierre Garcon was the only Colts receiver to break the 50-yard marker, and though he has the capabilities to do that yet again, it will be hard for anybody on Indy to get a clear run at the endzone with Dawkins, Bailey and Ty Law covering the deep routes and flats.

I’ve said that Indy deserves your faith until they lose, but there are too many factors swinging my vote in favor of Denver for me to ignore my gut instincts. The Colts will lose this game, and even if they don’t, Denver is covering this spread. If anything, count on the familiarity of McDaniels with Manning to be the biggest x-factor in this game. It certainly helped him beat the Patriots, and his knowledge and history of Manning will give the Broncos the edge.

Furious Free Pick: Denver +7 (UNDER)

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